Dec 20, 2023·edited Dec 20, 2023Liked by everyonehatespoetry
Thanks for the articulate, detailed analysis. Does this thesis still hold true to you? I imagine with decreasing rates looming, the bull case has strengthened(?) Would love a follow-up, but looking forward to the next analysis regardless of which company you cover.
Hey! Yes I've been pretty quiet but the case for this now has strengthened. UAW strike is out of the way, rates are heading down which is a massive benefit not only for their cap structure (variable rate debt with scary refi prospects) but also will benefit vehicle affordability and so new vehicle sales.
At the same time Mill Road increased their stake in the company and seems to be pushing for a more active role in decisions which could lead to a strategic review and maybe a sale of the company.
This is a very old pitch but I got one or two questions in it.
To be clear, I have been out of this stock for over 6 months.
A lot of things have changed. Auto production outlook has meaningfully worsened, SUP's results have underwhelmed me and I am worried on EV adoption so had gotten out of it a little while ago.
That being said godspeed to all the ones invested.
Thanks for the articulate, detailed analysis. Does this thesis still hold true to you? I imagine with decreasing rates looming, the bull case has strengthened(?) Would love a follow-up, but looking forward to the next analysis regardless of which company you cover.
Hey! Yes I've been pretty quiet but the case for this now has strengthened. UAW strike is out of the way, rates are heading down which is a massive benefit not only for their cap structure (variable rate debt with scary refi prospects) but also will benefit vehicle affordability and so new vehicle sales.
At the same time Mill Road increased their stake in the company and seems to be pushing for a more active role in decisions which could lead to a strategic review and maybe a sale of the company.
Thanks for the reply! I appreciate the added color to your thesis. Looking forward to reading more of your analyses in the future.
This is a very old pitch but I got one or two questions in it.
To be clear, I have been out of this stock for over 6 months.
A lot of things have changed. Auto production outlook has meaningfully worsened, SUP's results have underwhelmed me and I am worried on EV adoption so had gotten out of it a little while ago.
That being said godspeed to all the ones invested.